Storms as a source of strength
A playbook for making the most of the unexpected
In moments of stress or uncertainty, we often find ourselves scrambling to respond without a clear strategy.
That’s because human beings are hardwired to react quickly.
Daniel Kahneman explains it best - we tend to default to fast, instinctive thinking (so-called System 1) rather than slow, deliberate thinking (System 2), especially when we’re put under pressure.
This tendency is rooted in evolutionary survival mechanisms, but it becomes much less useful (even problematic) when it’s applied at the organisational level.
But what if we could reframe our perspective on uncertainty? What if, instead of fearing the unexpected, we could leverage those moments? Is there a way to use periods of uncertainty and upheaval to bolster values, stress test frameworks, and ultimately foster growth and resilience that would be impossible to create in less turbulent times?
📡 Signals Detected
A few of the things we’ve seen recently that got us thinking about the difference between reacting to the unforeseen event, and responding to them.
CEOs who are able to deal better with high-pressure and unpredictable situations are also those who were more aware of their blind spots and worked on the decision-making capabilities of their leadership team.
Sweden’s innovation agency has warned that the country risks falling behind in competitiveness due to a lack of “well-developed tools and processes for anticipating and managing future changes”.
Policy makers in low and middle-income countries make better decisions when they have clearly defined organisational values that they can use as a ‘compass’ for priority setting.
Organisations that have “proactive resilience strategies” typically don’t just survive disruptions, they turn them into opportunities for growth.
🤷 The ‘So What’: A proven playbook for thriving under pressure
While traditional models of organisational resilience focus on weathering storms, there is an alternative school of thought that advises leaning face first into the maelstrom, and even embracing it as a source of strength.
The logic behind this approach is simple: Once you stop fearing the unexpected then you can start building systems that are strengthened by it.
This means developing the ability to think across multiple time horizons (now, next, and later); and preparing for the multiple scenarios that might occur across those horizons (rather than just reacting to the most likely ones).
A case study in preparing for the worst: Taiwan’s radical transparency
Long before the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan had been investing in its digital public infrastructure under its minister for digital affairs, and former civic hacker, Audrey Tang. As well as introducing technological tools, Tang shaped a ‘trust architecture’, a participatory system that meant the government could co-create solutions and policies with the public.
By investing in this civic-tech infrastructure Taiwan’s government was able to think long term about their priorities, while also having the space to adjust policies in response to the unexpected; and deploy real time tech solutions in a crisis.
All this meant that, when the pandemic struck, Taiwan was ready. Within days, Tang and her team had built a live public dashboard of mask availability that was updated every 30 seconds. Citizens could suggest improvements, developers built apps off open data, and the government responded with tweaks.
As a result Taiwan had one of the lowest COVID-19 infection and death rates in the world during the first two years of the pandemic. All with no lockdowns. Public trust soared, and Tang’s model of “fast, fair, and fun” digital governance became a global reference point.
At Brink, when we talk about organisations moving beyond resilience to antifragility, (i.e. they are able to improve even as stressors increase), we talk about three key practices:
Values-based decision frameworks: Being able to clearly articulate organisational values that serve as frameworks for decentralised decision making during challenging situations, so we can be sure we’re responding, not just reacting. This also allows for leadership to surface in unexpected places. Antifragile systems let that leadership emerge and stick.
Strategic foresight capabilities coupled with experimentation: Actively scanning for emerging trends and potential disruptions, so we can prepare thoughtful responses rather than scrambling, then experimenting with projects that can scale up when needed. Chaos reveals which tests to double down on.
Flexible methodologies: Recognising that ‘5 year plans’ are often not worth the paper they are written on, and instead putting methodologies in place that means projects can flex and adapt in line with new information and contexts and recognising that crises accelerate feedback.
If you want more detail on these methods, we have just published a deep dive into how we use foresighting, backcasting, visioning and even play to help organisations clearheadedly prepare for the future and build resilience.
And this is the pre-mortem tool we use at the beginning of projects when we need to use ‘prospective hindsight’ to surface opportunities and risks that could make or break the work.
The single most important tool for creating resilience
Tools and practices alone will not make an organisation resilient. If structure and systems are the engine of antifragility, then mindset is the fuel.
Creating the kind we’re talking about here means developing an environment that treats discomfort as data and asks “What is this moment telling us that we couldn’t see before?”.
That means intentionally designing a culture in which people are innately curious, able to improvise in order to learn, and aren’t afraid to raise a hand if things aren’t working or they spot something no one else does (there’s much more about this in CD Issue #11 - Are polite teams where good ideas go to die?). As well as making sure people have clearly defined moments to ‘get off the dance floor and onto the balcony’, i.e to step back from the day-to-day, reflect on the direction of travel, and use the tools at their disposal.
A resilient culture has a willingness to experiment, to iterate, and to learn from the inevitable stumbles. It is one that truly believes and embodies the idea that “This might be hard, but it could also be our best shot at doing something extraordinary”.
So, as you consider these ideas, we encourage you to start small. Pick one aspect, perhaps a moment to 'get off the dance floor' this week, or a conversation that challenges a blind spot. Then, observe what happens. How does it shift your perspective? What new insights emerge? Let us know in the comments.
In the meantime, we've gathered some resources below to further fuel your exploration…
📚 Brain Food
🎧 Listen: The Leading for Resilience podcast invites change makers to reflect on “what kind of leadership they think builds essential resilience in this time of permacrisis”.
📖 Read: Tim ‘the Undercover Economist’ Harford, recently published an FT column headlined The truth about the forecasting paradox which talks about the usefulness of pre mortems and tries to explain the difference between an accurate prediction and a useful one (and why they’re not always the same thing)
📺 Watch: In 2016 Nassim Nicholas Taleb gave this hour-long lecture at Microsoft where he dissected his philosophy of the antifragile and why we need disorder in order to survive and flourish.
At Brink we work with partners to create real change in the world and to deliver a better future through the application of Behavioural Innovation, our proven approach for unlocking outsized impact.
If you would like to talk to us about the challenges you’re facing and how we might work together to shift systems, transform mindsets and create news possibilities, then you can reach our co-founder, Abi Freeman
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The year 1342 marked the death of Clement VI, the Pope who played a significant role during the bubonic plague. He was one of the few leaders who didn’t blame Jews for spreading the plague (a common accusation at the time). Instead, Clement issued papal bulls to shield Jewish communities. An example of great leadership in a time of crisis